Sütbrod

A war will be there again, in the Middle East, the tensions are getting to high. Iraq stays fragmentized, Lebanon is still unstable, Israel faces many angry Arabs from all around them and the United States lost her self-confidence after the Iraqi debacle. The gloom of war in the Middle East isn't a nice foresight, but if it happens, how will it look like? Three scenarios about the final of the Risk-game:

The first scenario: Starting point Lebanon.

After an election in Israel, a new right wing and hard lined government is in power. Current Minister of Foreign affairs, Liebermann, is elected as the new Prime minister. He promised to take matters into his own hand and continuous to build settler villages in the occupied West bank. The United States under the Presidency of Obama sees no option than to lower the financial support in an attempt to change the Israeli West bank policy.

On the other side of the border, in the North of Israel, has the pro-Western Hariri government resigned due to internal disputes within the Government. The dispute is over how to handle the unrest in the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) refugee camps. These Palestine refugeecamps are protesting for more civil rights within Lebanon. President Suleiman sees no other option, than to call for new elections. The election results are unclear and the destabilization of Lebanon goes on. In the Beka'a valley - in the east of Lebanon - the Shi'a majority tries go extend their control of land. Hezbollah militias back this up - the only group that was allowed to keep their weapons after the Lebanon civil war. Minorities in the area clearly are not liking this extension of power and try to fight the new Other Hezbollah-groups in the south of Lebanon started to fire new shells into Israel. The presence of UNFIL-militaries cannot prevent that.

For the Israeli government is this not acceptable and a military campaign is launched to - not only scare Hezbollah off - but to destroy them completely. And where the Lebanon military did not intervene in 2006, this time they play an important role in the fighting. Not only with ground components of the army, but as well with the new bought Russian made Mig-29 fighter planes. This means that the new escalation becomes a Israel/Lebanon-war instead of the 2006 Israel/Hezbollah-war. This difference has an international influence in the meaning that - with the 1991 Syrian/Lebanon-treaty - the Syrian government will be drawn into the conflict. This will basically mean that Israel will have to fight a two front conflict, partly inside Lebanon and a second one on the Golan height.

Within the first hours of the new battle lines, the attacking Syrian forces are drawn back, all most al the way to Damascus. With a destabilizing Syria, the Kurds in the north are taking the change and are declaring themselves independent with a new capital Al-Hasakah. This second Kurdistan (beside the one that is within the borders of Iraq) has a huge attractiveness to the other Kurds in the south of Turkey. Turkish army forces are being redeployed to counter a massive upraise in the south of Turkey.
In the mean time are Iranian fighter planes going to Syria, to assist them - as a part of the bilateral treaties between the two countries - in their war. Saudi-Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are uncertain which position to take in this new conflict. The big Palestinian minority in Jordan are calling for ’solidarity’ with the other Arabs. And not only the Palestinians on the east side of the river the Jordan, are calling for solidarity, also Fatah and Hamas are calling for solidarity. A campaign of suicide-, rocket- and mortar attacks is launched on the Israeli cities.

Meanwhile does the United Nation not know how the deal with this new situation, a resolution calling for a immediate cease fire "which can be enforced by all means necessary" has been vetoed by as well the United States as China. The European Union is condemning the initial attack, but doesn't want to burn their fingers in this mess, hopefully divided internally. Although the United States is not actively supporting the Israeli forces this time, it is also not condemning it. The split among the EU member states, internally, the NATO-members and the UN is seen everywhere. With this burning Middle-East, the stock exchanges are in deep red numbers and the price of oil and other power sources are increasing rapidly.

Next in part two: (II) Bahrain & Yemen and (III) Iran